The TRANSPOSE project aims to strengthen a network of scholars and practitioners working on climate change, finance, pensions and post-growth. A total of 15 people participate in this advisory committee. The first activity of the group was an on-line workshop on the 26^th November that focused on how to build resilient pension systems in the context of the climate crisis. After a round of introductions, the workshop included a brief presentation of the project’s aims, basic notions of pension design, some preliminary results, and a discussion. Here is a summary of the workshop.

Pension basics and early findings of TRANSPOSE

As explained in previous posts, the project seeks to measure the coupling between pension systems, GDP growth and CO₂ emissions, and to conceptualise what a sustainable pension system looks like under ecological constraints.

Pension systems can be analysed through three tiers defined in the OECD’s Pensions at a Glance: a basic or minimum public pension, a mandatory public pension or quasi-mandatory private/occupational pension, and a voluntary private pension. These tiers are not present in all systems, but they help differentiate functions. Basic pensions usually provide old-age poverty alleviation, with contributory or non-contributory eligibility. Mandatory or quasi-mandatory schemes—public PAYG or private funded—are the main contributory component, linking pensions to past earnings. Although hybrid models exist, it is useful to distinguish PAYG schemes, financed from public money, from funded schemes, financed through individual or collective savings.

The preliminary results from joint research with Peter Starke show that for 20 OECD countries between 1970 and 2022 pension replacement rates decouple at relatively low and medium levels of GDP per capita. Even more, we find that, keeping all the rest of our model variables constant, GDP per capita can even have an estimated negative effect on pension benefits. Labour outcome variables are more important, including labour participation rates, which are positively correlated with pension benefits. As proposed by post-growth scholars, advancing job-guarantees and working-time reduction policies are key policies in a post-growth context. However, productivity is also found key to foster general pension spending per capita. Since productivity is an indirect measure of GDP, we consider that pension average benefits could be tensioned in cases of GDP reductions, especially if labour is underutilised. Maintaining productivity levels through less resource use or working-time reductions are again important. On the contrary, compensary measures might be needed, especially for high pension earners. Substituing private pension incomes by public services, including long-term care and health, can be one way forward.

Workshop discussion

After presenting some preliminary results the participants discussed three guiding questions:

• What role do older adults’ private consumption and investment play in enabling or constraining the ecological transition?
• How can public social transfers advance mitigation and adaptation?
• How can we make welfare systems more resilient in contexts of limited or no material growth?

Pensioners’ spending and wealth: tackling carbon footprints and social inequalities

The first part of the discussion focused on consumption and wealth patterns in old age. Recent calculations for Spain show that pensioners’ consumption carbon footprint is often lower than that of the rest of the population, mainly due to reduced transport use, a major driver of emissions among affluent households. Pensioners tend to spend a larger share of income on health and housing. At the same time, health systems are highly emission-intensive, accounting for an estimated 5% of global carbon emissions, mostly indirectly. However, the bulk of emissions stem from hospitals, medical retailers and ambulances, while long-term care facilities represent only a small share of this footprint.

On wealth, two mechanisms were highlighted. First, older adults hold significantly more wealth than younger generations, especially housing wealth. However, wealth is also determined by class and gender, requiring an intersectional approach to mobilise old-age wealth for the ecosocial transition. Policies that increase the utilisation of under-occupied housing could improve youth access while providing better social outcomes for the elderly. Second, in countries with large funded pension pillars, the sustainability of pension fund portfolios is a major issue. Pension regulators and insurers are concerned about returns, and the ecological transition will require the participation of pension actors. However, class is also determinant here. For instance, it is estimated that a small share of wealthy individuals would be affected by divestment from fossil fuels. Addressing the carbon footprint of investments is important, but so is recognising the negative effects of the financialisaton of care services, often driven by pension funds themselves. In some cases, the same workers who contributed to pension funds face rising care costs as these funds seek higher returns.

Inequalities emerged as a central issue, since both consumption and saving patterns differ by class, gender, energy mix and national context. Labour-market histories shape retirement conditions: for example, low-paid women in care work face very different prospects than high-paid male workers in manufacturing. Even if average transport emissions fall after retirement, high-income pensioners may still have much higher footprints due to leisure travel. Participants also noted that older people are disproportionately vulnerable to climate impacts, including heatwaves and flooding, as recent events in Spain and Germany show. Adaptation will require significant personal expenditure, such as housing rehabilitation and medical costs. Health is a critical issue in climate change. As the consumption patterns for Spain show, low-income pensioners will be mostly affected by rehabilitation and energy costs, whereas high-income households must work in divesting their wealth from fossil fuels, which they could afford given the large wealth from other sectors.

Pension resilience without GDP growth

Two dimensions dominated the debate on pension–growth dependencies: redistribution and labour. If redistribution pressures reduce replacement rates for high-income pensioners, perceptions of unfairness may undermine the political sustainability of pension systems. Yet preferences for redistribution vary across class groups and stakeholder interests. Strengthening collective pensions rather than individual accounts can help share investment risks and stabilise retirement incomes. It is also important to differentiate pension fund returns from national GDP growth: even if domestic growth slows, global investment opportunities may keep returns stable or rising. Suggestions included financing PAYG pensions through environmental taxation and improving pension-fund regulation while reducing taxes on labour. On the labour side, participants stressed that high employment rates are essential for pension system functioning. Unions will continue to prioritise decent, secure employment, regardless of growth conditions. A key research challenge is to advance meaningful employment within planetary boundaries.

Participants also pointed out that current debates often frame pensions as an intergenerational conflict, with younger generations portrayed as victims of an unsustainable system. Also, alarmist views dominate the discourse, including exploding health costs, which are not that problematic. Reframing pensions as a redistributive institution is difficult when public understanding of how systems work remains superficial. Participants emphasised the need to build bridges with younger generations and to approach consumption and investment as collective challenges. The European Union could serve as an important arena for developing shared perspectives.

Principal takeaways from the workshop

• Pensioners show distinct consumption, wealth and carbon-footprint patterns compared with other groups. They are also among the most exposed to climate impacts.
• Class and gender shape both carbon footprints and climate resilience, influencing inequalities in consumption, savings and vulnerability.
• Key policies should support low-income pensioners through housing rehabilitation and the decarbonisation of health systems, while improving redistribution and the utilisation of the existing housing stock.
• Reducing the financialised nature of pension-fund investments and divesting from fossil fuels should be priorities that would have limited negative effects on most of the population.
• A post-growth scenario will require full-employment strategies and redistribution policies, which will inevitably include conflicts around economic justice.

This is only a short summary of the main points discussed. Any errors or omissions are my own. It was a pleasure to exchange perspectives on pensions and resilience.

Workshop Participants

• Irmi Seidl, Head of the Research Unit of Economics and Social Sciences, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL
• Christine Corlet Walker, Research Fellow, Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity (CUSP)
• Laua Wiman, Senior Scientist, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
• Héctor Tejero, Deputy for Health and Climate Change, Ministry of Health of Spain
• Frank Siebern-Thomas, Head of Unit “Fair, Green, and Digital Transitions, Research”, European Commission
• Bue Rübner Hansen, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Southern Denmark
• Sotiria Theodoropoulou, Head of Unit for European economic, employment and social policies, European Trade Union Institute (ETUI)
• David Palomera, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Southern Denmark